Science Research Project for Methods of STEM									By April C. Purvis

Research Topic: 
 The effect moon phases has on hurricanes and tropical storms 

Research Question: 
 Does the moon phase in which a hurricane or tropical storm takes place in make it more destructive?

Hypothesis:  
If a hurricane/tropical storm takes place during the full moon phase then it will be more destructive.

Introduction:
	Humans see eight different faces or phases of the moon.  The moon appears to look different on different nights on the Earth depending on how the sunlight hits the moon ("Understanding,"2009)   The eight phases as the moon revolves around the earth are: New moon, Waxing Crescent, First Quarter, Waxing Gibous, Full Moon, Wanning Gibous, Third Quarter, and Wanning Crescent.  The website goes on to suggest that in order to understand the moon phases one needs to understand that at all times one half of the moon is lit by the sun even though what is seen on Earth is not always lit.  The moon phases are caused by changing angles or positions of the Earth, Moon, and Sun.  New moon takes place when the moon is between the Earth and the sun.  The side of the moon that is getting sunlight is facing away from the Earth so the New moon is blacked out.  A full moon takes place when the Earth, Moon, and the Sun are in alignment so the side getting the light from the sun is facing Earth.   Many people call the first and third quarter moon phases "half moon" because the moon is at a 90 degree angle with the Earth and the Sun.  On Earth half of the moon is lit and half of the moon appears to be in the shadows.  The other four phases are in between phases as the moon waxes and wanes. ("Understanding, 2009).  As the Moon revolves around the Earth its gravational pull effects the ocean's tides; based on this knowledge, could the phases of the moon also have an effect on ocean tides and ocean storms such as hurricanes and tropical storms?    Each year the hurricane season seems to last longer and devastating hurricanes such as Katrina are seeming to become more common.   With knowing that  the moon influences ocean tides I decided to research if the eight moon phases may influence hurricanes and tropical storms.   It may be that hurricanes and tropical storms are more destructive and have higher winds during different moon phases.   If that is so maybe then we could be more prepared for the storms and their destructive outcomes.

Method:
	To determine if moon phases influence hurricanes and tropical storms, I had to do alot of research.  I first went to the NOAA Satelite and Information Service website and looked up Hurricanes that effected the Atlantic Ocean from the most recent Hurricane season 2008 back until 1998.  I created a spreadsheet to organize my data.  I created a column for the hurricane or tropical storm name.  I decided not to put the label tropical storm or hurricane with the names of the storms.  I thought if I labeled them then I might would be influenced to not consider tropical storms as being destructive.   I wanted to be completely unbiased by the type and the category of the storm and  I wanted to look mainly at the moon phase it occured in the damage it did and the wind speed of the storm.   The second column tells the start date of the storm and then the third column tells the end date.  From there I went to Star Date Online and calulated the moon phases in which storm took place in.  I entered that information in the fourth column on my spreadsheet.  I then went back to the NOAA Satelite and Information Sevice website and searched on Wikipedia to find out where the storms hit, how much damage was done, if there were any fatalities, and the strongest wind speed of the storm.    All that information was placed into separate columns on my spreadsheet.  After organizing and collecting my data, I went back through and bolded the font of the most destructive storms in each season to determine if the most destructive storms occurred during one certain moon phase.  

Observation and Analysis:
	My research did not prove my hypothesis to be 100% true.  There were some hurricanes and or tropical storms that were more destructive and had high wind speeds that started during the full moon phase but not all of them.  Out of the 42 storms that I highlighted being destructive only 9 of them started during the full moon phase.  I did find it interesting that in 2005 Wilma and Rita were destructive and powerful hurricanes that started during the full moon phase and that Katrina did not start during the full moon phase but was active during the full moon phases.  There were other storms that were not very destructive that were started during the full moon so my hypothesis was very wrong.   As I looked at my data I also observed that 9 of the 42 started during the new moon phases.    It was interesting that the waning and waxing phases seemed to have a lot of destructive storms with those 4 phases put together there was a total of 24 storms that started during those moon phases.   I don't think that is enough evidence to tell us that we should watch storms that start during the waning and waxing phases more closely because there were lots of storms that started during those phases that were not as destructive.     I might keep collecting data though to see if this trend continues.  The other ten destructive storms started during the 1st or 3rd quarter or what most people call the "half moon".    From this information and my analysis I do not think moon phase influences a hurricane or tropical storm to  be more destructive.  

 (Data table will be placed into the drop box for you to look at.  I didn't insert it into the paper because it is so big.)

Discussion:
	Even though my hypothesis failed I think my research ws important.  I think as scientist we should try as hard as possible to predict why these storms are as destructive and powerful as they are.  I was hoping that my research would show a connection to help predict the destructive storms to help save peoples' lives, homes, and money.  I think it is important to keep searching for a link or a clue as to why these storms are getting more destructive.    I think this could spark more ideas in trying to predict hurricane and tropical storm's destructiveness by looking at maybe if they are connected to a certain tide.  I think my research wasn't a waste of time because my hypothesis was wrong, but maybe a door that could lead to an answer!  One thing that I did take out of this is as a teacher a lot of times when you are teaching the moon phases  that you push your students to know new moon, 1st quarter, full moon, and 3rd quarter the most.  The four waning and waxing phases are introduced but not stressed.  I think I will start making them as important as the other because it seems like they influence hurricane and tropical storms just as much if not more as the other four phases.  

WORKS CITED:
"NOAA Satelite and information Service" April 2009.   National Climate Data Center. http://www.4.ncdc.noaa.gov

"Star Date Online" April 2009.  The University of Texas McDonald Observatory.  http:www.stardate.org/nightsky/moon  (used to gather data only)

"Understanding The Moon Phases"  April 2009.  http://www.moonconnection.com/moon_phases.phtml

"Wikipedia" April 2009. www.wikipedia.org (used to gather data only)